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Personal Savings vs. Advanced Retail Sales

savings sales

With the money running out the economy is trending downward unless we can get people to work and spending again. As outlined by Axios:

By the numbers: The 2021 holiday shopping season grew 14.1% from 2020 to a new record high of $886.7 billion, according to the National Retail Federation.

Yes, but: Sales declined November to December, the NRF says — a trend that was backed up by data from the Census Bureau, which showed a decline of 1.9% in those two months.

The big picture: Consumer sentiment has been falling over recent months and downshifted to its second-lowest level in 10 years in the early part of the month.

It’s down 12.9% since last year, as more people begin to worry about the effect of higher prices on their personal finances and the government’s ability to bring those prices down.

What they’re saying: “Consumer sentiment is typically a forward-looking indicator, versus retail sales, [which is] a lagging indicator,” CFRA senior equity analyst Arun Sundaram tells Axios.

The two measurements are starting to converge, which could mean weaker spending and retail sales in the coming months, he adds.

What to watch: Personal savings.  The absence of financial padding in the form of enhanced unemployment benefits and child tax credits has caused the personal saving rate to plummet to a new pandemic low of 6.9% as of November.

Axios Closer By Hope King and Nathan Bomey ·Jan 14, 2022